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Bilde av en liten grønn plante som står i tørr jord

04.05.2022

IPCC: En route for 3.2°C temperature increase with current policies

Global emissions must be halved by 2030 to realistically meet 1.5°C target.

The IPCC’s latest special report deals with climate initiatives in various parts of society and what effects these may have on the climate and other sustainable development goals. The report suggests some areas of opportunity, but does not provide concrete policy proposals. It points to positive developments over the last ten years regarding the lower rate of increase in greenhouse gas emissions and a broader involvement of society for climate action. Nevertheless, it emphasises that the gap between policy and the need for emission cuts is widening, and the window of opportunity to achieve climate goals can only be kept open through more vigorous and immediate measures, otherwise there will be significant negative emissions later on.

According to the IPCC, current policies will lead to a temperature increase of 3.2°C by 2100, and even with all announced climate ambitions, the target of 1.5°C will not be met. According to the IPCC, global emissions must be halved by 2030 to realistically meet 1.5°C target. This should be possible for a maximum cost of $100 per tonne of CO2e, of which around 1/3 of the measures can be implemented without additional costs. In particular, renewable energy, electrification, adjusted transport habits and new technology for energy efficiency are the most affordable initiatives. CCS is also included in the IPCC list of necessary measures up to 2030, though on the more expensive end. The extent of CCS adoption up to 2050 will depend on which decarbonisation strategies deployed. CCS is most important in scenarios where initiatives are delayed and carbon negative measures become necessary, and less important in scenarios involving a rapid transition in consumption and more renewable energy.

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