Radical and far-reaching changes

The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the response of the international community has rapidly weakened international cooperation and trade in energy resources and other vital raw materials. The crisis has the potential to create radical and far-reaching changes in many parts of society. The longer and deeper the crisis gets, the greater the ripple effects will be for the economy and supply chains in Europe and beyond.

EU action plan

The IEA quickly released a 10-point plan for how the EU can reduce its dependence on Russian gas by up to 1/3 this year, while also reducing carbon emissions. The EU recently published its plan to wean itself off Russian fossil fuels well before 2030, while also protecting itself from high energy prices this year. The plan states that in the short-term the EU will increase its gas purchases from other suppliers and in the longer term, increase the introduction of renewable energy while phasing out fossil fuel-based energy.

High energy prices

All in all, it is reasonable to expect that energy prices in Europe will remain much higher for the foreseeable future than before the pandemic. Inflation in the EU, already high before the Ukraine crisis, has risen further and is expected to remain high going forward. As for CCS, higher energy prices will make it more expensive and less competitive compared to other climate initiatives.

Increased interest in CCS?

The desire to phase out fossil fuel-based energy more quickly in the EU may also have a direct impact on interest in CCS, especially for carbon capture from natural gas or coal. Furthermore, the coming energy shortage will mean that all energy use (including for CCS) will face stronger competition with other energy use across society. However, the adoption of CCS up to 2030 will also largely be decided by the balance the EU makes between climate issues with other needs and how much funding is available for this purpose.

Equinor’s annual ‘Energy Perspectives’ from last year offers relevant analysis and its ‘Rivalry’ scenario is a fitting comparison to the current situation. The scenario points out that energy policy is much more focused on energy independence than the economy and environment. The analyses also show that this scenario leads to greater social inequalities, lower energy efficiency, less technology development as well as higher taxes on natural resources compared to their other scenarios.